The Presidential Debate Is Important – But Not More Than This

Tonight, Americans across the country will be glued to their screens, watching Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump duke it out in their first debate. 

That’s to be expected. This is a divisive and important presidential election. Current polls and betting markets show the outcome is basically a coin flip at the moment. But tonight’s debate could change all that. 

Indeed, Americans should be watching the upcoming presidential debate. 

But don’t expect to uncover any stock market insights. You won’t find any – or any good ones, at least. 

In fact, here’s a funny truth: The stock market doesn’t really care who is president. 

Stocks Will Rise, No Matter the President

Republican, Democrat, progressive, conservative – U.S. presidents’ political views haven’t seemed to matter to stocks since the 1980s. 

Stocks just keep going up. 

We’re about three years and eight months into President Joe Biden’s presidency. In that time, the S&P 500 has risen by about 50%. 

Guess how much the S&P rose in the first three years and eight months of Donald Trump’s presidency; about 50%. 

Coincidence? Maybe not. 

Because in the first three years and eight months of Barack Obama’s time in office, the S&P 500 rose… wait for it… about 50%. 

And, indeed, in the first three years and eight months of Bill Clinton’s presidency, the S&P 500 rose – you guessed it – about 50%. 

Clearly, there’s a pattern here. 

Stocks tend to rise about 50% in the first three years and eight months of any presidency – regardless of political affiliation. 

So, like many Americans, I’ll be watching tonight’s presidential debate. But I won’t be watching it to determine where stocks will go over the next four years. 

Instead, I’ll be watching a different event for that.